Bill, aka the Crazy Clock Guy, aka Hey You (tallguy) wrote,
Bill, aka the Crazy Clock Guy, aka Hey You
tallguy

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Some thoughts on the Second Gulf War

I was just thinking of the differences between the beginning of this war and the last Gulf War:
- In 1991, we attacked at 6:40pm Eastern Standard Time, which is 2:40 Iraqi time. This time, we attacked 3 hours later, around 5:45 Iraq time.
- In 1991, we started bombing and kept on bombing continuously for several hours. This time, we basically sent a few missiles in a "Good Morning Baghdad" wake-up.
- In 1991, the attack started on a night when there was no visible moon, making it much more difficult for ground observers to see aircraft and incoming messiles. Tonight, the moon is nearly full (albeit waning).
- In 1991, there was no question that the US/UN coalition forces had superior technology, with computers, communication, GPS systems, and ordinance. Today, your garden-variety Republican Guard has access to pretty much the same electronic technology as American forces, and who knows what weapons Iraq has.

My predictions (based on nothing more than gut instinct):
- The US will raise the terror level to Red within a week.
- There will be some sort of terrorist attack on US or British soil within two months, but I don't think it will be a chemical or biological nature.
- This will NOT be a short war, as most pundits believe. This will continue for at least six months, possibly as long as two years. Loss of American life will be in the thousands, if not the tens of throusands (for comparison, only 100 or so American soldiers were killed in 1991 as a result of hostile fire).
- This time, we WILL get Saddam Hussein. As glamorous as a black ops squad might be, it will be accomplished by massive bombing raids combined with a series of ground force attacks on political targets and house-to-house fighting. Civilian loss of life will be very high, and the longer the war progresses, the more disregard there will be for civilian casualties.
- We will piss off a lot of countries in the process, and the US economy will be in worse shape than before when it is done.
- Bush will be voted out of office in 2004, due to the terrible economic and diplomatic situation.

Why the hell did Bush have to do this NOW? God dammit, I wanted to go to bed early!
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